Saturday, February 5, 2011

sensitivity between euro-denominated and dollar-denominated returns

(Question)
A regression indicates the sensitivity between euro-denominated and dollar-denominated returns is -0.3. Calculate what impact a 5% drop in the euro relative to the U.S. dollar would have on overall bond portfolio returns.

Total portfolio = USD 25,000,000,000
Weight of foreign investments = 15%
Weight of bonds in foreign investments (euro-denominated bonds) = 40%

(Answer)
Δeuro = -0.05 (5% drop in EUR vs. USD means -5% return in USD terms from the EUR exposure.)
sensitivity = -0.3

Euro-denominated bonds = USD 25,000,000,000 * 15% * 40% = USD 1,500,000,000

Euro-denominated bonds * Δeuro * sensitivity
= USD 1,500,000,000 * (-0.05) * (-0.3)
= USD 22,500,000 (increase)

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