IR = (IC) * (BR)^0.5
Information Ratio = (Information Coefficient) * (Breadth)^0.5
Information Coefficient : depth of knowledge (correlation between the manager's forecasted and actual returns)
Breadth : number of independent investment decisions (e.g., # of index constituents)
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Passive Fund Construction Strategies: characteristic of the index and fund
| Index / Fund | factors to consider when choosing a strategy | Full Replication | Stratified Sampling or Optimization |
| Index | # of stocks | Few (limited) | Large |
| Index | Liquidity | High | Illiquid (at least some of index constituents are illiquid) |
| Fund | Cash (as funds to invest) | Significant (huge) | |
| Fund | Tracking Error (as a result of portfolio construction) | Low | Relatively higher (compared to Full Replication) |
| Fund | Rebalancing when |
Labels:
CFA Level 3 (June 2014),
P
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Rebalancing: Strategy, Factors, and Corridor
| Rebalancing: Strategy | Constant Mix | Constant Proportion (e.g., CPPI) | Buy and Hold |
| Optimal for investors with a floor value? | a floor value which limits his or her willingness to take risks if one's portfolio declines below that value | floor value >= 0 | |
| Optimal for investors with absolute risk tolerance that: |
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| GOOD performance if markets are | Ups and downs (mean-reversion, or "volatile" markets) | Trending (with no or few reversals) | in the middle of Constant Mix and Constant Proportion |
| POOR performance if markets are | Trending (with no or few reversals) | Ups and downs | in the middle of Constant Mix and Constant Proportion |
| Payoff Curve | Concave (*1) | Convex | Linear |
Also, Calendar Strategy's Rebalancing Frequency depends on volatility of asset class in the portfolio.
(*1) It supplies liquidity to the market, in effect "selling insurance" by taking the less popular side of trades when the market is trending up or down.
| # | Factor | |||
| 1 | Volatility | High | Low | |
| 2 | Frequency | Infrequent | Appropriately frequent | Too frequent |
| Market Impact / Trading Cost | High
| Low
| High
|
| # | |||||
| 1 | Risk tolerance | High | |||
| 2 | Flexibility for the asset allocation relative to the target mix | High | |||
| 3 | Volatility | Low | High | ||
| 4 | Correlation with the rest of the portfolio | High | Low | ||
| 5 | Transaction Cost | High | Low | ||
| Rebalancing Corridor Width | Wide | Wide | Narrow (*2) |
Labels:
CFA Level 3 (June 2014),
R
Concentrated Position in a Publicly Traded Common Stock
| # | Consequence | |||
| 1 | Outright Sale | |||
| 2 | Monetization |
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| 3 | Hedging |
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Labels:
C,
CFA Level 3 (June 2014)
Goal-based Planning
| Risk Bucket | Personal | Market | Aspirational | |
| Goal |
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| |
| Examples of investment instruments |
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Labels:
CFA Level 3 (June 2014),
G
Monday, February 10, 2014
Hedging Strategies
| Pros | Cons | |||
| Hedging with futures |
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| Insuring with options (Option insurance strategy) |
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| Delta hedging with options |
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Labels:
CFA Level 3 (June 2014),
H
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Expected Annual Return of the Equity Index
Expected Annual Return of the Equity Index
E(Rd)
= (Dividend Yield) + {Capital Appreciation or Depreciation}
= (D/P) - (ΔS) + i + g + (ΔP/E)
(D/P) = Dividend Yield
(ΔS) = % Change in Shares Outstanding (positive when share issuance, negative when share repurchases occur)
i = Inflation Rate
g = Real Earnings Growth
(ΔP/E) = Repricing as economic activity is expected to accelerate in the next 12 months (*)
(*) Repricing refers to changes in nominal earnings multiplier (price/earnings ratio) that determines the share's market price. P/E ratios typically expand as the economy expands and contract as the economy contracts, although not necessarily at the same pace or precisely in sync with each other.
For instance,
E(Rd)
= (Dividend Yield) + {Capital Appreciation or Depreciation}
= (D/P) - (ΔS) + i + g + (ΔP/E)
(D/P) = Dividend Yield
(ΔS) = % Change in Shares Outstanding (positive when share issuance, negative when share repurchases occur)
i = Inflation Rate
g = Real Earnings Growth
(ΔP/E) = Repricing as economic activity is expected to accelerate in the next 12 months (*)
(*) Repricing refers to changes in nominal earnings multiplier (price/earnings ratio) that determines the share's market price. P/E ratios typically expand as the economy expands and contract as the economy contracts, although not necessarily at the same pace or precisely in sync with each other.
For instance,
(D/P) = 1.25%
(ΔS) = -1.50% (shares REPURCHASE % of outstanding shares)
i = 2.50%
g = 3.50%
(ΔP/E) = 4.00%
E(Rd) = (D/P) - (ΔS) + i + g + (ΔP/E) = (1.25) - (-1.50) + 2.50 + 3.50 + (4.00) = 12.75%
Labels:
CFA Level 3 (June 2014),
E
Saturday, February 8, 2014
GIPS-comliant Performance Reporting
| # | GIPS Requirement | Non-GIPS-Compliant | |
| 1 | Total Return | Total Return = (Price Return) + (Income Return) - (Actual Incurred Trading Expenses) (*1) | Estimated Trading Expenses |
| 2 | Minimum Asset Level | Disclosure | |
| 2 | Material Changes in Calculation Methodology | Disclosure (*1) | |
| 4 | Real Estate |
| |
| 4 | Alternative Investments (excluding Real Estate) |
| |
| 5 | Discretionary / Non-discretionary Fee-Paying / Non-fee-paying | See (*3) for the composite inclusion rules. | |
| 6 | Allocation of Cash to Carve-Out Asset Class | Separate Accounts or Sub Accounts for each carve-out and hold the cash in each appropriate carve-out segment (*4) | |
| 7 | After Acquisition | Non-compliant firm's results be brought into compliance within 1 year (*5) |
(*1) Realized and/or Unrealized returns
(*2) GIPS states disclosure of calculation methodology changes are recommended, not required. However, the fact that material changes are not being disclosed is something completely different. Material changes would have to be disclosed. Failing to do so is a violation of the standards of professional conduct and GIPS. (e.g., Standard I(C) Misrepresentation)
Covered persons have an ethical obligation not to misstate facts or present information in a way that might mislead investors. Investment professionals violate the Standard when they know, or should know, that the presentation was biased or misleading. By violating the Standards in relation to GIPS, GIPS are also violated.
(*3)
| Fee-Paying | Non-Fee-Paying | |||
| Discretionary | Yes | Yes | ||
| Non-Discretionary | No | No |
(*4) Allocation of cash to carve-out asset class is no longer sufficient starting on Jan 1, 2010. If an investment firm wants to report carve-out performance, the firm must set up separate accounts or sub accounts for each carve-out and hold the cash in each appropriate carve-out segment.
(*5) The Track record from a prior firm or a affiliation must be linked to or used to identify the record of a new or acquiring firm on a composite basis if (1) the new or acquiring firm employs substantially all of the prior firm or affiliation's investment decision makers (2) the decision making process has remained intact at the new or acquiring firm, and (3) appropriate records exist to support reported performance combinations of a compliant and a non-compliant firm require that the non-compliant firm's results be brought into compliance within 1 year.
(*6) GIPS Recommendation (not Requirement)
Valuation by an External Valuation Expert or Appraiser: at least Every Year
Trust
Definition:
Related parties:
(*1) distributions thru (1) language in the trust document and/or (2) a non-binding letter of wishes
(*2) including Tax Payment due
(*3) In general, creditors (of a Beneficiary) are unable to reach assets that an individual (i.e., Beneficiary) does not own. (Just as an irrevocable trust can protect assets from claims against the Settlor, discretionary trust can protect assets from claims against the Beneficiaries.)
- Trust is a legal relationship, not a person, under Common Law (e.g., US, UK).
Related parties:
- Settlor (or Grantor) --(transfer assets)--> Trustee
- Beneficiaries (e.g., settlor's children)
| Trust | Control of Distributions by | |||
| Discretionary | Trustee | |||
| Fixed | Predetermined terms (*1) |
| Trust | Beneficial Owner of Trust Assets | Legal Owner of Trust Assets (*2) | ||
| Irrevocable | Beneficiaries | Trustee (*3) | ||
| Revocable | Beneficiaries | Settlor |
(*3) In general, creditors (of a Beneficiary) are unable to reach assets that an individual (i.e., Beneficiary) does not own. (Just as an irrevocable trust can protect assets from claims against the Settlor, discretionary trust can protect assets from claims against the Beneficiaries.)
After-tax Return, Effective Long-Term Capital Gains Tax Rate, Future Value of the Portfolio, and Accrual Equivalent Return
Investment Portfolio = V0 = $750,000
Average Annual Portfolio Pre-tax Return = r = 8.0%
Investment Time Horizon = n = 5 (years)
Cost Basis as a % of current market value = 100% = 1
[1] After-tax Return
r* = r (1 - pi ti - pd td - psg tsg)
r* = 8.00% * (1 - 0.3000 * 25% - 0.0833 * 15% - 0.2000 * 25%) = 6.90%
[2] Effective Long-Term Capital Gains Tax Rate
r* T* = r (plg tlg)T* = (r/r*) (plg tlg)
T* = (8.00%/6.90%) * (41.67% * 20%)
= 9.66260869565217% = 9.66%
Also,
(r/r*) = 1/(1 - pi ti - pd td - psg tsg)
# from the result of [1]
T* = (plg tlg)/(1 - pi ti - pd td - psg tsg)
[3] Future Value of the Portfolio
Vn = V0 [1 + {(1 + r*)n - 1} (1 - T*) - (1 - B) tlc]
= V0 [{(1 + r*)n (1 - T*) + T*} - (1 - B) tlc]
Vn = $750,000 [{(1 + 6.90%)5 (1 - 9.66%) + 9.66%} - (1 - 1) 20%]
= 750000 * (((1 + 6.90%)^5 * (1 - 9.66%) + 9.66%) - (1 - 1) * 20%)
= 1,018,316.56847811 = 1,018,316.57
[4] Accrual Equivalent Return
V0 (1 + RAE)n = Vn
RAE = (Vn/V0)1/n - 1
RAE = (1,018,316.57 / 750,000)1/5 - 1
= (1018316.57 / 750000)^0.20 - 1
= 0.0630759897687938 = 6.31%
Average Annual Portfolio Pre-tax Return = r = 8.0%
Investment Time Horizon = n = 5 (years)
Cost Basis as a % of current market value = 100% = 1
| Source | First Year | Annual Proportion (p) | Tax Rate (t) | |
| Tax Interest | $ 18,000 | 30.00 % | 25 % | |
| Dividends | $ 5,000 | 8.33 % | 15 % | |
| Short-Term Capital Gains | $12,000 | 20.00 % | 25 % | |
| Long-Term Capital Gains | $ 25,000 | 41.67 % | 20 % | |
| Total | $ 60,000 | 100.00 % |
[1] After-tax Return
r* = r (1 - pi ti - pd td - psg tsg)
r* = 8.00% * (1 - 0.3000 * 25% - 0.0833 * 15% - 0.2000 * 25%) = 6.90%
[2] Effective Long-Term Capital Gains Tax Rate
r* T* = r (plg tlg)T* = (r/r*) (plg tlg)
T* = (8.00%/6.90%) * (41.67% * 20%)
= 9.66260869565217% = 9.66%
Also,
(r/r*) = 1/(1 - pi ti - pd td - psg tsg)
# from the result of [1]
T* = (plg tlg)/(1 - pi ti - pd td - psg tsg)
[3] Future Value of the Portfolio
Vn = V0 [1 + {(1 + r*)n - 1} (1 - T*) - (1 - B) tlc]
= V0 [{(1 + r*)n (1 - T*) + T*} - (1 - B) tlc]
Vn = $750,000 [{(1 + 6.90%)5 (1 - 9.66%) + 9.66%} - (1 - 1) 20%]
= 750000 * (((1 + 6.90%)^5 * (1 - 9.66%) + 9.66%) - (1 - 1) * 20%)
= 1,018,316.56847811 = 1,018,316.57
[4] Accrual Equivalent Return
V0 (1 + RAE)n = Vn
RAE = (Vn/V0)1/n - 1
RAE = (1,018,316.57 / 750,000)1/5 - 1
= (1018316.57 / 750000)^0.20 - 1
= 0.0630759897687938 = 6.31%
Labels:
A,
CFA Level 3 (June 2014),
E,
F
Tuesday, February 4, 2014
Saturday, January 25, 2014
Trading Behavior
Four types of equity investors:
trader | trades frequently and recognizes all portfolio returns in the form of annually taxed short term gains. This equity management style may subject investment returns to tax burdens similar to those applied to interest income thereby eroding possible tax efficiencies associated with equities (i.e., deferred capital gains). |
active investor | trades less frequently so that gains are longer term in nature, may receive more favorable tax treatment. |
passive investor | passively buys and holds stock. |
exempt investor | not only buys and holds stocks, but he never pays capital gains tax. |
Labels:
CFA Level 3 (June 2014),
T
Tax Regimes
Income Type: | Ordinary | Interest | Dividends | Capital gains |
Common Progressive Regime (most common regime observed) | Progressive | Favorable | Favorable | Favorable |
Heavy Dividend Tax Regime | Progressive | Favorable | Ordinary | Favorable |
Heavy Capital Gain Tax Regime | Progressive | Favorable | Favorable | Ordinary |
Heavy Interest Tax Regime | Progressive | Ordinary | Favorable | Favorable |
Light Capital Gain Tax Regime (second most common regime) | Progressive | Ordinary | Ordinary | Favorable |
Flat and Light Regime | Flat | Favorable | Favorable | Favorable |
Flat and Heavy Regime | Flat | Favorable | Ordinary | Ordinary |
“Ordinary” can be paraphrased by “Progressive.”
Labels:
CFA Level 3 (June 2014),
T
Taxes
Tax structures (the specifics of how governments collect taxes) are determined by national, regional, and local jurisdictions in order to meet governmental funding needs. Major sources of government tax revenue include:
- Taxes on income. These taxes apply to individuals, corporations, and often other types of legal entities. For individuals, income types can include salaries, interest, dividends, realized capital gains, and unrealized capital gains, among others. Income tax structure refers to how and when different types of income are taxed.
- Wealth-based taxes. These include taxes on the holding of certain types of property (e.g., real estate) and taxes on the transfer of wealth (e.g., taxes on inheritance).
- Taxes on consumption. These include sales taxes (which are taxes collected in one step from the final consumer on the price of a good or service) and value-added taxes (which are collected in intermediate steps in the course of producing a good or service but borne ultimately by the final consumer).
Labels:
CFA Level 3 (June 2014),
T
Legal Systems
| Reasoning | Developed | |||
| Civil Law | Europe, Japan, ... |
| Deductive | legislative statutes or executive action |
| Common Law | US, UK, ... |
| Inductive | decisions of the courts |
Labels:
CFA Level 3 (June 2014),
L
IPS (Investment Policy Statement)
| Description | |||
| Return Objectives | |||
| Risk Tolerance |
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| Portfolio Constraints |
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Labels:
CFA Level 3 (June 2014),
I
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