Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Information Ratio

IR = (IC) * (BR)^0.5

Information Ratio = (Information Coefficient) * (Breadth)^0.5

Information Coefficient : depth of knowledge (correlation between the manager's forecasted and actual returns)

Breadth : number of independent investment decisions (e.g., # of index constituents)

Passive Fund Construction Strategies: characteristic of the index and fund

Passive Fund Construction Strategies: characteristic of the index and fund
Index / Fundfactors to consider when choosing a strategyFull ReplicationStratified Sampling or
Optimization
Index# of stocksFew (limited)Large
IndexLiquidityHighIlliquid (at least some of index constituents are illiquid)
FundCash (as funds to invest)
    Significant (huge)
    FundTracking Error (as a result of portfolio construction)LowRelatively higher (compared to Full Replication)
    FundRebalancing when
  • Index stock change
  • Cash inflow / outflow (including dividends) 
  • Tuesday, February 11, 2014

    Rebalancing: Strategy, Factors, and Corridor

    Rebalancing: Strategy
    Rebalancing: StrategyConstant MixConstant Proportion (e.g., CPPI)Buy and Hold


    Optimal for investors with a floor value?
    a floor value which limits his or her willingness to take risks if one's portfolio declines below that valuefloor value >= 0
    Optimal for investors with absolute risk tolerance that:
    • varies proportionately with wealth
    • 0 < one's multiplier < 1

    • varies by more than any change in one's wealth 
    • one's multiplier > 1
    • one's multiplier = 1
      GOOD performance if markets areUps and downs (mean-reversion, or "volatile" markets)Trending (with no or few reversals)in the middle of Constant Mix and Constant Proportion
        POOR performance if markets areTrending (with no or few reversals)Ups and downs in the middle of Constant Mix and Constant Proportion
          Payoff CurveConcave (*1)ConvexLinear

          Also, Calendar Strategy's Rebalancing Frequency depends on volatility of asset class in the portfolio.

          (*1) It supplies liquidity to the market, in effect "selling insurance" by taking the less popular side of trades when the market is trending up or down.

          Rebalancing: Factors
          #Factor
          1VolatilityHighLow
          2FrequencyInfrequentAppropriately frequentToo frequent
          Market Impact / Trading CostHigh
          • Asset mix can drift to the point where rebalancing could create a market impact, thus increasing the cost of trading dramatically.
          Low
          • Market impact will be lower with more frequent rebalancing.
          High
          • Portfolio could incur numerous costly small trades to achieve minor adjustments in the asset mix.


          Rebalancing: Corridor
          #

          1Risk toleranceHigh
          2Flexibility for the asset allocation relative to the target mixHigh
          3Volatility
          LowHigh
          4Correlation with the rest of the portfolio
          HighLow
          5Transaction Cost
          HighLow
          Rebalancing Corridor WidthWideWideNarrow (*2)
          (*2) The narrow corridor means that small changes in value may necessitate rebalancing.

          Concentrated Position in a Publicly Traded Common Stock

          Concentrated Position in a Publicly Traded Common Stock
          #


          Consequence
          1Outright Sale
        • Significant tax liabilities
        • 2Monetization
          • It provides the owners with funds to spend or reinvest without triggering a taxable event.
          • (e.g.,) a loan against the value of a concentrated position
          3Hedging
          • Use of derivatives
          • (e.g.,) a long put

          Goal-based Planning

          Goal-based Planning
          Risk Bucket
          PersonalMarketAspirational
          Goal

          • Protection from poverty or a decrease in lifestyle
          • To maintain the current standard of living

          • Opportunity to increase wealth sustainability
          Examples of investment instruments

          • Personal residence
          • Certificate of Deposit (CD)
          • Treasury securities
          • Other safe investments
          • Stocks
          • Bonds

          • Privately owned business
          • Commercial and investment real estate
          • Concentrated stock positions

          Monday, February 10, 2014

          Hedging Strategies

          Hedging Strategies



          ProsCons
          Hedging with futures

          • Typically greater liquidity than options
          • No cost to enter
          • No requirement for frequent adjusting /rebalancing

          • Forgoes any potential appreciation in hedged instrument(s)
          • More distant (in price) contracts increase basis risk
          • More distant (in price) contracts are less liquid
          Insuring with options
          (Option insurance strategy)


          • Offer upside gain while hedging downside losses

          • Initial outlay of option premium requirement
          • Option premium crea an imperfect hedge
          Delta hedging with options

          • Opportunity to capture upside gains, if they occur
          • More closely hedge the exposure (than the option insurance strategy)

          • Constant rebalancing requirement
          • Expensive transaction costs because of frequent rebalancing

          Sunday, February 9, 2014

          Expected Annual Return of the Equity Index

          Expected Annual Return of the Equity Index

          E(Rd)
          = (Dividend Yield) + {Capital Appreciation or Depreciation}
          = (D/P) - (ΔS) + i + g + (ΔP/E)

          (D/P) = Dividend Yield

          (ΔS) = % Change in Shares Outstanding (positive when share issuance, negative when share repurchases occur)
          i = Inflation Rate
          g = Real Earnings Growth
          (ΔP/E) = Repricing as economic activity is expected to accelerate in the next 12 months (*)

          (*) Repricing refers to changes in nominal earnings multiplier (price/earnings ratio) that determines the share's market price. P/E ratios typically expand as the economy expands and contract as the economy contracts, although not necessarily at the same pace or precisely in sync with each other.



          For instance,

          (D/P) = 1.25%
          (ΔS) = -1.50% (shares REPURCHASE % of outstanding shares)
          i = 2.50%
          g = 3.50%
          (ΔP/E) = 4.00%

           E(Rd) = (D/P) - (ΔS) + i + g + (ΔP/E) = (1.25) - (-1.50) + 2.50 + 3.50 + (4.00) = 12.75%

          Saturday, February 8, 2014

          GIPS-comliant Performance Reporting


          GIPS-compliant Performance Reporting
          #
          GIPS RequirementNon-GIPS-Compliant
          1Total ReturnTotal Return
          = (Price Return) + (Income Return) - (Actual Incurred Trading Expenses) (*1)
          Estimated Trading Expenses
          2Minimum Asset LevelDisclosure
          2Material Changes in Calculation MethodologyDisclosure (*1)
          4Real Estate
          • Internal (in-house) Valuation: at least Quarterly (Jan 1, 2008 -)
          • External ValuationEvery Year (as of Jan 1, 2010) (*6)
          • Appraisal by a licensed appraiserEvery 3 Year
          4Alternative Investments (excluding Real Estate)
          • Internal (in-house) Valuation: at least Every Year

          5Discretionary / Non-discretionary

          Fee-Paying / Non-fee-paying
          See (*3) for the composite inclusion rules.
          6Allocation of Cash to Carve-Out Asset ClassSeparate Accounts or Sub Accounts for each carve-out and hold the cash in each appropriate carve-out segment (*4)

            7After AcquisitionNon-compliant firm's results be brought into compliance within 1 year (*5)

            (*1) Realized and/or Unrealized returns

            (*2) GIPS states disclosure of calculation methodology changes are recommended, not required. However, the fact that material changes are not being disclosed is something completely different. Material changes would have to be disclosed. Failing to do so is a violation of the standards of professional conduct and GIPS. (e.g., Standard I(C) Misrepresentation)
            Covered persons have an ethical obligation not to misstate facts or present information in a way that might mislead investors. Investment professionals violate the Standard when they know, or should know, that the presentation was biased or misleading. By violating the Standards in relation to GIPS, GIPS are also violated.

            (*3)
            Composite Inclusion Rules


            Fee-PayingNon-Fee-Paying

            Discretionary
            Yes
            Yes

            Non-Discretionary
            No
            No

            (*4) Allocation of cash to carve-out asset class is no longer sufficient starting on Jan 1, 2010. If an investment firm wants to report carve-out performance, the firm must set up separate accounts or sub accounts for each carve-out and hold the cash in each appropriate carve-out segment.

            (*5) The Track record from a prior firm or a affiliation must be linked to or used to identify the record of a new or acquiring firm on a composite basis if (1) the new or acquiring firm employs substantially all of the prior firm or affiliation's investment decision makers (2) the decision making process has remained intact at the new or acquiring firm, and (3) appropriate records exist to support reported performance combinations of a compliant and a non-compliant firm require that the non-compliant firm's results be brought into compliance within 1 year.

            (*6) GIPS Recommendation (not Requirement)
            Valuation by an External Valuation Expert or Appraiser: at least Every Year

            Trust

            Definition:

            • Trust is a legal relationship, not a person, under Common Law (e.g., US, UK).

            Related parties:
            • Settlor (or Grantor)  --(transfer assets)-->  Trustee
            • Beneficiaries (e.g., settlor's children)

            Discretionary Trust and Fixed Trust
            Trust


            Control of Distributions by
            Discretionary

            Trustee
            Fixed

            Predetermined terms (*1)
            (*1) distributions thru (1) language in the trust document and/or (2) a non-binding letter of wishes

            Irrevocable Trust and Revocable Trust
            Trust

            Beneficial Owner of Trust AssetsLegal Owner of Trust Assets (*2)
            Irrevocable

            BeneficiariesTrustee (*3)
            Revocable

            BeneficiariesSettlor
            (*2) including Tax Payment due
            (*3) In general, creditors (of a Beneficiary) are unable to reach assets that an individual (i.e., Beneficiary) does not own. (Just as an irrevocable trust can protect assets from claims against the Settlor, discretionary trust can protect assets from claims against the Beneficiaries.)

            After-tax Return, Effective Long-Term Capital Gains Tax Rate, Future Value of the Portfolio, and Accrual Equivalent Return

            Investment Portfolio = V0 = $750,000
            Average Annual Portfolio Pre-tax Return = r = 8.0%
            Investment Time Horizon = n = 5 (years)
            Cost Basis as a % of current market value = 100% = 1

            Portfolio Expected Return Distribution
            SourceFirst YearAnnual Proportion (p)
            Tax Rate (t)
            Tax Interest$ 18,00030.00 %25 %
            Dividends$ 5,000
            8.33 %
            15 %
            Short-Term Capital Gains
            $12,000
            20.00 %
            25 %
            Long-Term Capital Gains
            $ 25,000
            41.67 %
            20 %
            Total
            $ 60,000
            100.00 %


            [1] After-tax Return

            r* = r (1 - pi ti - pd td - psg tsg)

            r* = 8.00% * (1 - 0.3000 * 25% - 0.0833 * 15% - 0.2000 * 25%) = 6.90%


            [2] Effective Long-Term Capital Gains Tax Rate

            r* T* = r (plg tlg)T* = (r/r*) (plg tlg)

            T* = (8.00%/6.90%) * (41.67% * 20%)
            = 9.66260869565217% = 9.66%

            Also,
            (r/r*) = 1/(1 - pi ti - pd td - psg tsg)
            # from the result of [1]
            T* = (plg tlg)/(1 - pi ti - pd td - psg tsg)


            [3] Future Value of the Portfolio

            Vn = V0 [1 + {(1 + r*)- 1(1 - T*)  -  (1 - B) tlc]
            V0 [{(1 + r*)(1 - T*) + T* -  (1 - B) tlc]

            Vn = $750,000 [{(1 + 6.90%)(1 - 9.66%) + 9.66%}  -  (1 - 1) 20%]
            = 750000 * (((1 + 6.90%)^5 * (1 - 9.66%) + 9.66%)  -  (1 - 1) * 20%)
            = 1,018,316.56847811 = 1,018,316.57


            [4] Accrual Equivalent Return

            V0 (1 + RAE)Vn
            RAE = (Vn/V0)1/n - 1

            RAE = (1,018,316.57 / 750,000)1/5 - 1
            = (1018316.57 / 750000)^0.20 - 1
            = 0.0630759897687938 = 6.31%