Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Information Ratio

IR = (IC) * (BR)^0.5

Information Ratio = (Information Coefficient) * (Breadth)^0.5

Information Coefficient : depth of knowledge (correlation between the manager's forecasted and actual returns)

Breadth : number of independent investment decisions (e.g., # of index constituents)

Passive Fund Construction Strategies: characteristic of the index and fund

Passive Fund Construction Strategies: characteristic of the index and fund
Index / Fundfactors to consider when choosing a strategyFull ReplicationStratified Sampling or
Optimization
Index# of stocksFew (limited)Large
IndexLiquidityHighIlliquid (at least some of index constituents are illiquid)
FundCash (as funds to invest)
    Significant (huge)
    FundTracking Error (as a result of portfolio construction)LowRelatively higher (compared to Full Replication)
    FundRebalancing when
  • Index stock change
  • Cash inflow / outflow (including dividends) 
  • Tuesday, February 11, 2014

    Rebalancing: Strategy, Factors, and Corridor

    Rebalancing: Strategy
    Rebalancing: StrategyConstant MixConstant Proportion (e.g., CPPI)Buy and Hold


    Optimal for investors with a floor value?
    a floor value which limits his or her willingness to take risks if one's portfolio declines below that valuefloor value >= 0
    Optimal for investors with absolute risk tolerance that:
    • varies proportionately with wealth
    • 0 < one's multiplier < 1

    • varies by more than any change in one's wealth 
    • one's multiplier > 1
    • one's multiplier = 1
      GOOD performance if markets areUps and downs (mean-reversion, or "volatile" markets)Trending (with no or few reversals)in the middle of Constant Mix and Constant Proportion
        POOR performance if markets areTrending (with no or few reversals)Ups and downs in the middle of Constant Mix and Constant Proportion
          Payoff CurveConcave (*1)ConvexLinear

          Also, Calendar Strategy's Rebalancing Frequency depends on volatility of asset class in the portfolio.

          (*1) It supplies liquidity to the market, in effect "selling insurance" by taking the less popular side of trades when the market is trending up or down.

          Rebalancing: Factors
          #Factor
          1VolatilityHighLow
          2FrequencyInfrequentAppropriately frequentToo frequent
          Market Impact / Trading CostHigh
          • Asset mix can drift to the point where rebalancing could create a market impact, thus increasing the cost of trading dramatically.
          Low
          • Market impact will be lower with more frequent rebalancing.
          High
          • Portfolio could incur numerous costly small trades to achieve minor adjustments in the asset mix.


          Rebalancing: Corridor
          #

          1Risk toleranceHigh
          2Flexibility for the asset allocation relative to the target mixHigh
          3Volatility
          LowHigh
          4Correlation with the rest of the portfolio
          HighLow
          5Transaction Cost
          HighLow
          Rebalancing Corridor WidthWideWideNarrow (*2)
          (*2) The narrow corridor means that small changes in value may necessitate rebalancing.

          Concentrated Position in a Publicly Traded Common Stock

          Concentrated Position in a Publicly Traded Common Stock
          #


          Consequence
          1Outright Sale
        • Significant tax liabilities
        • 2Monetization
          • It provides the owners with funds to spend or reinvest without triggering a taxable event.
          • (e.g.,) a loan against the value of a concentrated position
          3Hedging
          • Use of derivatives
          • (e.g.,) a long put

          Goal-based Planning

          Goal-based Planning
          Risk Bucket
          PersonalMarketAspirational
          Goal

          • Protection from poverty or a decrease in lifestyle
          • To maintain the current standard of living

          • Opportunity to increase wealth sustainability
          Examples of investment instruments

          • Personal residence
          • Certificate of Deposit (CD)
          • Treasury securities
          • Other safe investments
          • Stocks
          • Bonds

          • Privately owned business
          • Commercial and investment real estate
          • Concentrated stock positions

          Monday, February 10, 2014

          Hedging Strategies

          Hedging Strategies



          ProsCons
          Hedging with futures

          • Typically greater liquidity than options
          • No cost to enter
          • No requirement for frequent adjusting /rebalancing

          • Forgoes any potential appreciation in hedged instrument(s)
          • More distant (in price) contracts increase basis risk
          • More distant (in price) contracts are less liquid
          Insuring with options
          (Option insurance strategy)


          • Offer upside gain while hedging downside losses

          • Initial outlay of option premium requirement
          • Option premium crea an imperfect hedge
          Delta hedging with options

          • Opportunity to capture upside gains, if they occur
          • More closely hedge the exposure (than the option insurance strategy)

          • Constant rebalancing requirement
          • Expensive transaction costs because of frequent rebalancing

          Sunday, February 9, 2014

          Expected Annual Return of the Equity Index

          Expected Annual Return of the Equity Index

          E(Rd)
          = (Dividend Yield) + {Capital Appreciation or Depreciation}
          = (D/P) - (ΔS) + i + g + (ΔP/E)

          (D/P) = Dividend Yield

          (ΔS) = % Change in Shares Outstanding (positive when share issuance, negative when share repurchases occur)
          i = Inflation Rate
          g = Real Earnings Growth
          (ΔP/E) = Repricing as economic activity is expected to accelerate in the next 12 months (*)

          (*) Repricing refers to changes in nominal earnings multiplier (price/earnings ratio) that determines the share's market price. P/E ratios typically expand as the economy expands and contract as the economy contracts, although not necessarily at the same pace or precisely in sync with each other.



          For instance,

          (D/P) = 1.25%
          (ΔS) = -1.50% (shares REPURCHASE % of outstanding shares)
          i = 2.50%
          g = 3.50%
          (ΔP/E) = 4.00%

           E(Rd) = (D/P) - (ΔS) + i + g + (ΔP/E) = (1.25) - (-1.50) + 2.50 + 3.50 + (4.00) = 12.75%