Saturday, April 30, 2011

Convenience Yield

  • The convenience yield decreases the futures price. (like dividend yield).
  • The price of an index futures contract is reduced by cash flows from the underlying asset, but the reduction comes from the future value of the cash flows, NOT from an implied cost for retaining the use of the underlying asset.

Cash Flow Yield (CFY)

  • dependent on prepayment assumptions
    • if prepayment rates differ from the assumption, the CFY will not be realized
  • The reinvestment assumption of the CFY is a weakness. The CFY calculation assumes that interim cash flows are reinvested at the CFY.

Friday, April 29, 2011

ICAPM (International CAPM)

E(R) = Rf,DC + βWM * WMRP + γDC * FCRP

Rf,DC: domestic risk-free rate
βWM: asset's world market beta
WMRP: world market risk premium
γDC: sensitivity of the asset's domestic currency return to a change in the local (foreign) currency
FCRP: foreign currency risk premium

All returns are measured in DC (domestic currency).


ICAPM (International CAPM)
itemsvalue
Rf,DC2.00%
Rf,FC8.00%
World market risk premium6.00%
Foreign country index beta to world market index1.40
Foreign country's local market risk premium7.50%
Foreign company's beta to local index1.30
Foreign currency risk premium3.00%
Foreign country's sensitivity of LC stock returns to LC0.70

γLC = γFC = 0.70

We need to convert this to the sensitivity of the asset's domestic currency returns to the local currency. Using the formula for the sensitivity of the asset's domestic currency return to a change in the local currency.

γ = γDC = γFC + 1= 0.70 + 1 = 1.70

The ICAPM expected return for the foreign company is:

E(R)
= Rf,DC + βWM * WMRP + γDC * FCRP
= 2.00% + 1.40 * 6.00% + 1.70 * 3.00%
= 15.500%

traditional model

When the FC (foreign currency) changes by 10%, the value of the exporter (a foreign company) stock generally change by 6%. The exporter does not import its inputs but obtains them locally.

[Question]
The sensitivity of the exporter stock returns, measured in DC (domestic currency) to changes in the value of the FC is:

Traditional model
FCExporter stock price
↑(appreciation) 10%-6%
↓(depreciation) -10%+6%

The exporter's local currency (FC) exposure is thus negative and is -0.60.

Using the formula for the domestic currency exposure, the sensitivity of the exporter stock returns in DC terms to changes in the value of the FC is:

γ = γ(LC) + 1
= (-0.60) + 1 = 0.40

γ: DC sensitivity
γ(LC): LC (local currency) sensitivity


(opposite) money demand model

Foreign Currency Risk Premium (FCRP)

[Question]

The foreign exchange expectation theory and interest rate parity hold between DC (domestic currency/country) and FC (foreign currency/country).

Interest rate: rDC=2%, rFC=5%

What is the foreign currency risk premium?


Answer:

FCRP = Expected exchange rate movement - Interest rate differential between DC and FC
= (E(S1) - S0)/S0 - (rDC - rFC)

S1, S0: DC/FC

If interest parity holds, the foreign rate, F, reflects the differences between country interest rates.
F = S0 * (1 + rDC - rFC)

FCRP
= (E(S1) - S0)/S0 - S0*(rDC - rFC)/S0
= (E(S1) - S0*(1 + rDC - rFC))/S0
= (E(S1) - F)/S0

The foreign exchange expectation relation states that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the expected future spot rate:
F = E(S1)

So, if the foreign exchange expectation relation holds, then the foreign currency risk premium is equal to zero.


FCRP
= (E(S1) - F)/S0= 0/S0= 0

In other words, there is no risk premium for exposure to currency risk.

extended CAPM

Extended CAPM is NOT international CAPM.

[Question]
Statement:
  1. To extend the domestic CAPM to international asset pricing using the extended CAPM, one must make two additional assumptions.
    1. Global investors have identical consumption baskets.
    2. Interest rate parity holds throughout the world.
  2. The extended CAPM assumes that exchange rate changes are predictable so that there is no real exchange rate risk.

Are both statements correct?

Statement:
  1.  
    1. Correct. In order to use the extended CAPM, one must assume that global investors have identical consumption baskets.
    2. Incorrect. We must assume that purchasing power parity holds throughout the world, NOT Interest rate parity.
  2. Correct. The extended CAPM assumes that exchange rate changes are predictable so that there is no real exchange rate risk. If exchange rates are consistent with purchasing power parity, exchange rate changes would reflect the inflation differentials between any two countries and real exchange rate risk would be nil.

Impairment loss

Impairment loss
Impairment test (under each inequality, impairment loss is recognized):Impairment lossCV after impairment loss
U.S.GAAPFair value < Carrying value (including goodwill)

or

Net book value(CV) > Undiscounted cash flows
(CV - FV) FV
IFRSRecoverable amount < Carrying value (including goodwill)(CV - FV) FV

The decline is considered to be permanent, the impairment loss is recognized on the income statement.

Full goodwill, partial goodwill, and pooling method: Goodwill, Long-term debt-to-equity ratio

Full goodwill, partial goodwill, and pooling method
in $ millionsAcquirer
Target

Book valueFair valueBook valueFair value
Current assets9,0009,000500700
Noncurrent assets7,5007,800900950

16,50016,8001,4001,650



Current liabilities3,0003,000250250
Long-term debt7,7007,500400
300
Shareholder's equity5,8006,300750
1,100
16,50016,8001,400
1,650

Acquirer purchased a 60% controlling interest in Target for $900 million (paid with shares of Acquirer's common stock)

Goodwill
method
Goodwill
Full goodwill900/60% - 1,100 (identifiable net assets@FV) = 400
Partial goodwill900 - 1,100 * 60% (pro-rate share of Target's identifiable net assets@FV) = 240
Pooling0 (*)
(*) Goodwill is not created under the pooling method.

Long-term debt-to-equity ratio
method
Goodwill
Long-term debt7,700 (Acquirer, BV) + 300 (Target, FV)
Equity5,800 (Acquirer, BV) + 900 (Acquirer, FV, shares to acquire Target) + 600 (noncontrolling interest) (*)
Long-term debt-to-Equity ratio8,000/7,300 = 1.0959
(*) Under U.S. GAAP, the noncontrolling interest is based on the full goodwill method.

carrying value of fixed income portfolio

carrying value of fixed income portfolio
bond

PV
bond classification

held-to-maturityheld-for-trading
face value

$10 million$7 million
coupon
4%, annual5%, semi-annual
maturity-19.5 years
1/2/2009$9.2 million (yield=5%)
purchase price
7/1/2009
$7 million (par)
purchase price
12/31/2009(current)$9.6 million
fair value


(*2) $9,260,000
carrying value
(yield = 4%)
fair value


(*1) $7,941,591
carrying value

(*1) Trading securities are reported on the balance sheet at fair value. (carrying value = fair value)
N = 19.5*2 = 39
I/Y = 4/2 = 2
PMT = 5% * (1/2) * 7,000,000 = 175,000
FV = 7,000,000
CPT PV = -7,941,590.609

(*2) Held-to-maturity securities are reported on the balance sheet at amortized cost.
Carrying value = issue price + discount amortization
= 9,200,000 + (9,200,000*5% - 10,000,000*4%)
= 9,260,000


Thus, at the end of 2009, the investment portfolio is reported at:
9,260,000 + 7,941,591 = 17,201,591

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Deregulation

Deregulation
EffectScenarioABC
short-termPricesDecreaseIncreaseIncrease
short-termQuality of goods and servicesImprovesImprovesDeclines
short-termWelfare of industry workersDeclinesImprovesDeclines
long-termPricesDecreaseIncreaseDecrease
long-termCompetitionIncreaseDecreaseIncrease

Which is the most likely scenario resulting from deregulation?

Answer: C

In the short-run:
  • Prices may rise.
  • The quality of goods and services may decline.
  • Unions become less powerful and employees may be laid off.
  • High cost producers may exit the industry due to lower profits.

In the long-run:

  • Prices should fall.
  • Industries will become more competitive as barriers to entry fall.

Capture hypothesis

  • The regulatory decisions favor an industry, because:
    • the regulatory bodies tend to have members who used to work in the industry.
    • the industry has greater economic resources and incentives than consumers.

The industry "captures" the regulators.

Rate-of-return regulation

(e.g.)
The government is allowing the electricity producer to set their own prices, as long as the prices do not result in excessive returns for the producers.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Currency Swap

At the inception of the contract (0 day):

USD/MXN
TimeUSD/MXN
0 day$0.0893

Current term structure
TimeUSDMXN
360 days4.0%5.0%
720 days4.5%5.2%

Maturity = 2-year (fixed for fixed)
Payment = annual
Exchange of notional principal: at the beginning and end of the swap term
Notional principal: $100 million

[1] Annual fixed payments in MXN
To calculate the fixed payment in MXN, first use the Mexican term structure to derive the present value factors:

Z360(0 day),MXN = 1/(1+5.0%*360/360) = 0.9524
Z720(0 day),MXN = 1/(1+5.2%*720/360) = 0.9058

The annual fixed payment per peso of notional principal would then be:
SF(0,2,360) = (1-0.9058)/(0.9524+0.9058) = 0.0507

The annual fixed payment would be:
0.0507*$100 million*(1MXN/$0.0893) = 56.8 million MXN


Six months have passed (180 days):
USD/MXN
TimeUSD/MXN
180 day passed (current)$0.0850

Current term structure
TimeUSDMXN
180 days4.2%5.0%
540 days4.8%5.2%

[2] Present value of the dollar fixed payments for the two-year currency swap six months after the initial analysis

Z360(0 day),USD = 1/(1+4.0%*360/360) = 0.9615
Z720(0 day),USD = 1/(1+4.5%*720/360) = 0.9174

Fixed rate (USD, 0 day) = (1-0.9174)/(0.9615+0.9174) = 0.044

Z180(180day), USD = 1/(1+4.2%*180/360) = 0.9794
Z540(180 day), USD = 1/(1+4.8%*540/360) = 0.9328


0.044 * 100 * (0.9794+0.9328) + 100 * 0.9328 = $101.69 million




[3] Value of the 2-year currency swap from the perspective of the counterparty paying dollars six months after the initial analysis
Fixed rate (USD, 0 day) = 0.044
Fixed rate (MXN, 0 day) = 0.0507


Z180(180 day),MXN = 1/(1+5.0%*180/360) = 0.9756
Z540(180 day),MXN = 1/(1+5.2%*540/360) = 0.9276

The present value of the fixed payments plus the principal is:
0.0507*(0.9756+0.9276)+1*0.9276 = 1.0241 (per MXN)

Apply this to notional principal and convert at current exchange rate:
1.0241 (per MXN) * ($100 million/$0.0893)*$0.085
= 1.0241 * (100/0.0893)*0.085 = $97.48 million


The value of the swap is the difference between this value and the pay dollar fixed present value derived in the previous question:
$97.48 million - $101.69 million = 97.48 - 101.69 = -$4.21 million

Friday, April 22, 2011

netting agreements, mark-to-market agreements, and off market swap contracts

Because currency swaps almost always include netting agreements and interest rate swaps can be structured to include mark-to-market agreements, we can significantly reduce the credit risk of these swap instruments by negotiating swap contracts that include these respective features. When negotiating these features is not possible, credit risk can be reduced by using off-market swaps that do not require an initial payment from your firm.


[Question]
Evaluate statements above regarding your firm's ability to mitigate the credit risk inherent in currency swaps and interest rate swaps. The statements above are only correct regarding:

A. netting agreements.
B. mark-to-market agreements.
C. off market swap contracts.

Answer: B

netting agreements, mark-to-market agreements, and off market swap contracts
Timeinterest rate swapcurrency swapequity swap
netting agreements.OK- (*)OK
mark-to-market agreements.OKOK
off market swap contracts. (**)

(*) Currency swap payments are generally not netted.
(**) Using off-market swaps is not generally a method to reduce credit risk. If your firm enters into an off-market swap in which they do not owe a payment, then a payment is owed to your firm by the counterparty. This would actually increase credit risk since the counterparty could potentially default on the initial payment.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Two-factor Arbitrage Pricing Model

Macroeconomic multi factor model equations:
RD = 0.09 + 1.0FIS + 0.0FBC
RE = 0.08 + 0.0FIS + 1.0FBC

FIS: surprise in investor sentiment
FBC: surprise in the business cycle

Two-factor Arbitrage Pricing Model
E(R) = risk free rate + bISRPIS + bBCRPBC

risk free rate = 0.05
bIS = 1.25
bBC = 1.10
RPIS: risk premium associated with risk factor IS
RPBC: risk premium associated with risk factor BC

According to the multi factor equations, the expected return (intercept) for the investor sentiment factor portfolio (D) = 9% and for the business cycle factor portfolio (E) equals 8%. Risk premiums are defined as the difference between the expected return on the appropriate factor portfolio and the risk-free rate.

Therefore,
RPIS = 0.09 - 0.05 = 0.04
RPBC = 0.08 - 0.05 = 0.03

The expected return for Portfolio P equals
0.05 + 1.25 * 0.04 + 1.10 * 0.03 = 0.133

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

highly inflationary environment: foreign subsidiary's gains and losses in the income statement

Assume the country where a foreign subsidiary is operating has been experiencing 30% annual inflation over the past three years.

The temporal method is required if the foreign subsidiary is operating in a highly inflationary environment, defined as cumulative inflation of more than 100% in a 3-year period.

(1+30%)^3 - 1 = 120%

highly inflationary environment: foreign subsidiary's gains and losses in the income statement
U.S.GAAPU.S.GAAP
Accountingtemporaltemporal
Remeasurement gains and lossesI/SI/S
subsidiary's net monetary asset/liabilityliabilityasset
foreign currencydepreciatingdepreciating
Income statementgainloss

Temporal method: depreciation expense

Equipment
Date
Balance (LCU)LCU/$
beginning of 2006Purchase equipment9751.00/1
2007Destroyed equipment-108
end of 2007Receive an insurance settlement for the loss92
6/30/2008Purchase equipment2251.25/1
in LCU (local currency unit) millions

[Question]
Assuming that the equipment is depreciated using the straight-line method over ten years with no salvage value, calculate the subsidiary's 2008 depreciation expense under the temporal method.

Answer:

Temporal method→depreciation: (H) Historical FX rate

((975-108)-0)/10 = 86.7 LCU
86.7 LCU * (1.00USD/1.00LCU) = 86.7 USD million


(225-0)/10 * 0.50 = 11.25 LCU
11.25 LCU * (1.00USD/1.25LCU) = 9 USD million


86.7 + 9 = 95.7 USD million

Economic Equilibrium

To understand the role of technology in the growth of the country A's economy (using neoclassical growth theory assumptions), the following table was developed to show the increased productivity of country A's farmers using disease resistant grains. Assume new disease resistant grain technology was introduced into the country A's farm economy at Point A.

Economic Equilibrium
PointABC
Target rate of return10%12%12%
Real interest rate10%13%12%

[Question]
Based on the neoclassical growth model, indicate at what point the country A's farmers would find economic equilibrium after the introduction of disease resistant grains.

A. Point A.
B. Point B.
C. Point C.

Answer: C

Equilibrium in the neoclassical model occurs when the target rate of return equals the real interest rates equal the target interest rates.

Target rate of return = Real interest rates = Target interest rates

  • Real interest rates are those rates achieved in the market
  • Target interest rates are those rates of return the investor wishes to earn.
Equilibrium occurs at Point A and at Point C. However, as a result of adding disease resistant grain to the country A's farmers, these farmers are operating on a higher productivity curve than the original Point A. At Point B, the real interest rate is higher than the target interest rate, inducting more capital to be invested. At Point C, the target rate of interest is equal to the real rate of interest, creating an equilibrium.

Neoclassical growth theory: Convergence of economic growth rate and income level to that of richer countries

Country A was able to achieve economic growth rates and income levels comparable with many of its neighboring countries during the neoclassical growth period. Country A's scientists, together with the engineering department of a university, provided access to the finest technology in the world. In addition, country A opened up its equity markets to outside investors and allowed its currency to float. Dr. S believes that, given time, these capital market improvements should allow the country A's economy to achieve an economic growth rate and per capita income level comparable to any country in the world.

[Question]
Country A has access to the same world class technology and capital markets as its more advanced neighbors. Dr. S expects country A's economic growth rate and income level to converge to that of richer countries over time. Indicate whether convergence with richer countries is likely or unlikely. Convergence is:

A. likely, due to country A's similar access to capital and technology.
B. unlikely, due to differences in savings rates and target rates of return.
C. likely due to differences in savings rates and target rates of return, but not due to similar access to capital and technology.

Answer: B

The neoclassical growth theory model does indeed imply that given access to the same technology and capital markets, then growth rates and income levels per person should begin to converge on a global basis.

While some convergence has occurred over time, many countries are just as far away from the rich countries as they have ever been. This lack of convergence in the real world is probably due to the fact that the neoclassical growth model leaves out many of the variables that must grow at the same rate in different countries for convergence to occur.

Obstacles to convergence include differences in:
  • population growth rates
  • rates of technological change
  • (and most importantly) savings rates and target rates of return
In essence, if the countries do not have similar economic and demographic characteristics, then it would be difficult for them to grow at the same rate.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Soft Dollar Standards

  1. CFA Institute's soft-dollar rules are not mandatory. In any case, client brokerage can be used to pay for a portion of mixed-use research.
  2. Investment firms can use client brokerage to purchase research that does not immediately benefit the client. Commissions generated by outside trades are considered soft dollars, but commissions from internal trading desk are not.
Are these statements on the soft dollar standards correct?


  1. Correct.
    • Statement 1 is true. CFA Institute Soft Dollar Standards are voluntary, though firms that wish to claim compliance with the Standards must follow them completely.
    • Client brokerage can be used to pay for mixed-use research with the caveat that the research must be reasonable, justifiable, and documentable, and that the client brokerage is only used to pay for the portion of the research that will be used in the investment decision-making process.
  2. Incorrect.
    • Commissions from both internal and external brokerage operations are considered soft dollars, so Statement 2 is false.
    • While research paid for by client brokerage should directly benefit the client, it does not have to do so immediately.

interest rate floor: valuation

[Question]
If 1-year LIBOR at the end of year 2 is 5.8%, the absolute value of a position (long or short) in the 2-year, 6%, $30 million interest rate floor at the end of year 2 is:

Answer:
(6%-5.8%)*$30,000,000/(1+5.8%) = 56,710.78

The floor pays off in arrears, so the $60,000 payoff is made at the end of the third year, and the floor value at maturity is the present value of the $60,000 payoff discounted 1 year at 5.8%.

Saturday, April 16, 2011

industry life cycle: four phases

industry life cycle: four phases
phase
description
1pioneerIt is not clear that a product will be accepted in the industry.
2growthProper execution of strategy is critical.
3matureParticipants compete for market share in a stable industry.
4declineChanging tastes have an important impact on the industry.

Economic Value Added (EVA) and Market Value Added (MVA)

Balance Sheet (12/31/2008)
AssetsLiabilities
Cash125,000
Accounts payable426,000
Accounts payable975,000
Accrued liabilities774,000
Inventory1,215,000
Long-term debt6,211,000
Fixed assets (net)9,227,000
Equity
Common shares2,100,000
Retained earnings2,081,000

Total assets11,592,000Total liabilities and equity11,592,000

Income Statement (12/31/2008)
Sales
9,423,000
Cost of sales


4,580,000
SG&A


1,230,000
Depreciation


1,745,000
Interest Expense522,000
Income tax expense403,800
Net income942,200


  • Tax rate = 30%
  • WACC = 11.9%
  • Current stock price = $35
  • Shares outstanding = 130,000
  • Current long-term debt value = 95% of its book value



Economic Value Added (EVA)
= NOPAT - $WACC
= EBIT*(1-t) - $WACC

EBIT
= Sales - Cost of sales - SG&A - Depreciation
= 9,423,000 - 4,580,000 - 1,230,000 - 1,745,000
= 1,868,000

Total capital
= Long-term debt + Common shares + Retained earnings
= 6,211,000 + 2,100,000 + 2,081,000
= 10,392,000


Economic Value Added (EVA)
= 1,868,000*(1-30%) - 11.9% * 10,392,000
= 1,307,600 - 1,236,648

= 70,952

Market Value Added (MVA)
= Market value (Equity) + Market value (Long-term debt) - Book value (Equity) - Book value (Long-term debt)

Market value (equity) = $35 * 130,000 = $4,550,000
Market value (long-term debt) = 95% * 6,211,000 = $5,900,450

Market Value Added (MVA)
= 4,550,000 + 5,900,450 - (2,100,000 + 2,081,000) - 6,211,000
= 58,450

FCFE: appropriate valuation model with relatively constant proportions of equity and debt financing

[Question]

FCFE > 0

Under the assumption that a company maintains relatively constant proportions of equity and debt financing, the most appropriate valuation model is the:

A. FCFF approach.
B. FCFE approach.
C. residual income approach


Answer: B

Since the company's capital structure is reasonably stable and FCFE is positive, FCFE is a simpler approach to valuation than FCFF, EVA, or residual income, and is preferred in this case.

Equity method and Proportionate consolidation

Equity method and Proportionate consolidation

equityproportionate consolidation
Net income+share(%)=+share(%)
Total equity(no change)=(no change)
COGS(no change)<+share(%)
inclusion of minority interest accounts(no change)=(no change)

Acquisition: goodwill, amount reported in the B/S

The pre-acquisition balance sheets
12/31/2007
in $ thousands
AcquirerTargetTarget
Book value/Fair value
BVFV
Assets
Cash710100100
Marketable securities2,550--
Inventory2,000400400
Accounts receivable3,000500500
PP & E2,4501,0001,200
Total assets10,7102,0002,200
Liabilities
Accounts payable3,310400400
Long-term debt5,0001,0001,000
Equity2,400600800
Total liabilities and equity10,7102,0002,200

  • On 12/31/2007, Acquirer purchased a 35% ownership interest in a strategic new firm called Target for $300,000 in cash.
  • The remaining useful life of the PP&E is 10 years with no salvage value. Both firms use the straight-line depreciation method.
  • For the year ended 2008, Target reported net income of $250,000 and paid dividends of $100,000.
  • During the first quarter of 2009, Target sold goods to Acquirer and recognized $15,000 of profit from the sale. At the end of the quarter, half of the goods purchased from Target remained in Acquirer's inventory.

[Question]
The amount of (partial) goodwill as a result of Acquirer's acquisition of Target is:

300,000 - 35% * 800,000 = 300,000 - 280,000 = $20,000

[Question]
What amount should Acquirer report in its balance sheet as a result of its investment in Target at the end of 2008?

Under the equity method,
Original amount including goodwill + %ownership * (Net income - Dividends) - %ownership * Additional depreciation
= 300,000 + 35% * (250,000 - 100,000) - 35% * ((1,200,000 - 1,000,000) - 0)/10
= 300,000 + 52,500 - 7,000
= 345,500

[Question]
Which of the following best describes Acquirer's treatment of the intercompany sales transaction for the quarter ended 3/31/2009?
Acquirer should reduce its equity income by:

15,000 * 50% * 35% = $2,625

reclassification: from designated at fair value to available-for-sale

reclassification: from designated at fair value to available-for-sale

designated at fair value
(representing unrealized gains)
available-for-sale
Net income
Retained earnings
Other comprehensive income
Total equity
(no change)
Total liabilities(no change)
Total assets(no change)
Asset turnover = Revenues / Total assets
(no change)/(no change)
ROA = Net income / Total assets↓/(no change)
Debt to Equity = D/E
(no change)/(no change)
ROE = Net income / Equity↓/(no change)
Debt to Total capital = D/(D+E)(no change)/(no change + no change)

Temporal method: different local currency, functional currency and reporting currency of a subsidiary

[Question]

(1) the operating, financing, and investing decisions related to a foreign subsidiary's operations are typically made by the foreign subsidiary's local management located in the foreign country; and
(2) some of the foreign subsidiary's accounts receivable are denominated in a different foreign currency(DFC).

Which method is the best to use to translate the DFC receivables into the foreign currency (FC), according to U.S. GAAP?

The U.S. dollar is the reporting currency of a parent company.

A. The all-current method.
B. The temporal method.
C. The method will depend on inflation.

Answer: B

In this example, the DFC is the local currency, the FC is the functional currency (because the foreign subsidiary is an independent subsidiary), and the U.S. dollar is the reporting currency.

The appropriate application of U.S. GAAP is to first remeasure the DFC receivables from DFC to FC using the temporal method.

Full goodwill and Partial goodwill: IFRS

If Acquirer decides to purchase only 80% of Target, under IFRS they will have the option to:

A. report the acquisition as either a business combination or as an acquisition.
B. value the identifiable assets and liabilities of Target at their current book values or at fair market value.
C. report more or less goodwill depending on the accounting method they choose.



Answer: C
  • All business combinations (e.g., merger, purchase, or consolidation) are reported under the acquisition method.
  • Identifiable assets and liabilities must be reported at fair value at the time of the acquisition.
  • Under IFRS, Acquirer has the option of calculating the goodwill for the acquisition under either the full goodwill or partial goodwill methods. Goodwill is less under the partial goodwill method.

Goodwill

(Question)
Regarding the goodwill on the acquisition of Target (from 80% to 100%) being considered by Acquirer, which of the following statements is correct?

A. It is equal to the excess of the purchase price over the fair value of the identifiable assets and liabilities and must be amortized over no longer than 30 years.
B. It will be reported as an asset, not amortized, and must be reviewed for impairment at least annually, with same test for impairment under IFRS and U.S. GAAP.
C. For goodwill that is found to be impaired, the amount of the impairment charge reported is the same under both IFRS and U.S. GAAP.


Answer: C

  • Goodwill is no longer amortized under IFRS or U.S. GAAP.
  • The test for impairment is different under IFRS than under U.S. GAAP.
  • For assets that are judged to be impaired, the calculation of the amount of the impairment charge is the same under both IFRS and U.S. GAAP.

Acquisition method and Pooling of interest method

IFRS
Pooling of interest methodAcquisition method
AcquirerAcquirer
TargetAssetsBook valueFair value
TargetLiabilitiesBook valueFair value
Acquirergoodwill?NoYes

(Question)
Regarding the prior purchase that was accounted for under the pooling of interests method, had Acquirer reporeted this purchase under the acquisition method:

A. the assets and liabilities of the purchased firm would not be included on Acquirer's balance sheet
B. balance sheet assets and liabilities of the purchased firm would have been reported at fair value.
C. reported goodwill could be less depending on the fair value of the identifiable assets and liabilities compared to their book values.

Answer: B

The assets and liabilities of the purchased firm are included on the balance sheet of the acquiring firm under either method.
  • Under the pooling method, there is no adjustment of balance sheet asset and liability values to their fair values (i.e. book value).
    • There is no goodwill reported under the pooling method; the purchase price is not reflected on the balance sheet of the acquiring firm.
  • Under the acquisition method, assets and liabilities acquired are reported at fair value at the time of the purchase.

Friday, April 15, 2011

Operating ROA (Return On Asset)

Operating ROA (Return On Asset) = EBIT / Total Assets

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Acquisition method: consolidated current asset

Acquirer →(45% ownership stake, $9 million in cash)→ Target

Acquisition method: consolidated current asset
acquisitionPrior toPrior toAfter
in $ millionsAcquirerTargetAcquirer (consolidated, acquisition method)
Current asset963296-9+32 = 119
Total equity8016

Saturday, April 9, 2011

FRA: current value

LIBOR
Daysoriginal30 days later
303.12%
603.32%
903.52%
1203.72%3.92%
1503.92%
1804.12%
2x5 FRA4.30%(now 1x4 FRA) 4.14%




The current value of the $10 million FRA to the short position:
(4.30%-4.14%) * $10 million * (90/360) / (1+3.92%*(120/360))
= $3,948.4075

Forward contract on a Treasury bond

Forward contract on a Treasury bond
Days(underlying) TreasuryForward
0Price = $98.25
182Coupon = 100*5%*(1/2) = $2.50
270
maturity
365Coupon = 100*5%*(1/2) = $2.50

Forward contract
  • Underlying: $1 million Treasury bond (w/ 10 years remaining to maturity)
  • Underlying coupon: 5% (just after a coupon payment)
  • Effective annual risk-free rate: 4%

No-arbitrage forward price
= (98.25-2.50/1.04^(182/365))*1.04^(270/365)
= 98.25*1.04^(270/365)-2.50*1.04^((270-182)/365)
= $98.6185 = $98.62



Forward contract on a Treasury bond
Days(underlying) TreasuryForward
60Price = $98.25 → $98.11
182Coupon = 100*5%*(1/2) = $2.50
270
maturity
365Coupon = 100*5%*(1/2) = $2.50

Value of a long position in the 270-day forward contract on a $10 million bond
= (98.11-2.50/1.04^(122/365) - 98.62/1.04^(210/365)) = -0.77696 (per $100)

-0.77696 * $10*10^6 /$100 = -$77,697 (per $10 million)



Value of a short position in the 270-day forward contract on a $10 million bond
= +0.77696 (per $100)

+$77,697 (per $10 million)

Monday, April 4, 2011

Sharpe ratio: market portfolio and risky portfolios

  • The market portfolio has the highest Sharpe ratio.
  • All other risky portfolios will have a smaller Sharpe ratio than that.
    • (even if the funds are mean-variance efficient)

consolidating SPEs on the balance sheet

consolidating SPEs on the balance sheet
(previously)equity methodSPEs consolidated on the balance sheet
Assets
Net income

→ (no change)
Equity
-→ (no change)

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Callable and Putable bond: market price & OAS

  • An interest rate lattice is constructed to be arbitrage-free.
  • However, when an analyst calculates the price of the callable and putable bond (call & put price = 100) using the interest rates in the lattice, the analyst gets a value higher than the market price of the bond.
  • The embedded options will be exercised if the option has value(i.e., in-the-money).

The price of the callable and putable bond is likely:
Callable and putable bond
Market priceOAS
A.< 100%Zero
B.= 100%Positive
C.> 100%Negative

Answer: B

Market price:
In this case, the bond is callable and putable at the same price(100). Since the embedded options (the issuer's call option and the holder's put option) will be exercised if the option has value (i.e., is in-the-money), the value (=market price, in an ideal world) of the bond must be 100 (plus the interest) at all times.

If rates fall and the computed value goes above 100, the company will call the issue at 100.
Conversely, if rates increase and the computed value goes below 100, the bondholder will "put" the bond back to the issuer for 100.


OAS:
The OAS is a constant spread added to every interest rate in the tree so that the model price of the bond is equal to the market price of the bond. In this case, using the interest rate lattice, the model price of the callable and putable bond is greater than the market price. Hence, a positive spread must be added to every interest rate in the lattice. When a constant spread is added to all the rates such that the model price is equal to the market price, you have found the OAS. The OAS will be positive for the callablle and putable bond.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Pecking order theory

Pecking order theory prefers (1) internally generated equity (retained earnings) over new debt and (2) new debt over new equity.

"Pecking order theory states that debt financing is preferable to all equity financing."

Incorrect.

Friday, April 1, 2011

Treynor-Black Model

Treynor-Black Model
AnalystXY
Alpha4%7%
Residual risk30%40%
Correlation between forecasted and realized alphas0.850.60

Using the Treynor-Black model and alphas adjusted for each analyst's forecast accuracy, what is the optimal allocation of the stock recommended by X to the active portfolio?


Answer:

WX=(4%*0.85^2)/30% / ((4%*0.85^2)/30% + (7%*0.60^2)/40%)
= 0.6046... = 60%

WY=1-WX=40%

Note that as the alphas are adjusted downward, not only does the allocation within the active portfolio change, but the allocation between the active portfolio and the market portfolio changes as well. The allocation to the active portfolio will decline and the allocation to the market portfolio will increase as a result of adjusting for forecast accuracy.

Correlation^2=R^2

Theory of active portfolio management

Active portfolio management: trends in asset pricing over the past several decades
YearCharacterization of capital market valuation
1998-1999There was a bubble in stock prices.
2000-2001Stock prices subsequently corrected.
2002-2003The downward trend in stock prices, due to an overcorrection; that is, prices fell significantly below fundamental values.

Assume that the characterization of capital market valuation above is correct. According to the theory of active portfolio management, in which period(s) of time did large numbers of investors turn their attention to actively managed funds?

A. The period 1998-1999 only.
B. The period 2000-2001 only.
C. The periods 1998-1999 and 2002-2003.


Answer: B

According to the theory of active portfolio management, one of the justifications for active management is that market equilibrium results from the activity of active managers who are seeking misvalued securities. That is, the actions of active managers result in fairly valued securities.

Capital markets were corrected from 2000 to 2001. This would result from large numbers of investors turning their attention to actively managed funds.

The misvaluations in the periods 1998-1999 and 2002-2003 would be from not enough assets being deployed to active management.

Expected growth rate in dividends for stocks

If the expected growth rate in dividends for stocks increases by 75 basis points, which of the following would benefit the most? An investor who:

A. is short futures contracts on the equity index.
B. is long futures contracts on the equity index.
C. has a long position in put options on the equity index.


Answer: B

An increase in the growth rate in dividends for stocks would increase the spot price of the equity index. As the spot price increases, the futures price for a given maturity also increases (holding interest rates constant). Thus, an investor who is long a futures contract already can enter into a short futures contract at the same maturity for a higher futures price than his long contract. Effectively, the investor can buy the asset in the future for a fixed price and sell the asset for a higher fixed price--a guaranteed profit. Thus, as the spot and futures prices rise, the value of a long index futures position rises as well.

Futures and Forwards

"The risk-free interest rate term structure is flat."

"You should note that if we had entered into a forward contract with the same terms, the contract price would most likely have been lower but we would have increased the credit risk exposure of the portfolio."

Incorrect.

  • In a flat (constant) interest rate environment, there is no difference in the prices of futures and forward contracts.
  • The part of the comment ralating to credit risk is correct.
    • Because the forward contracts are not marked to market each day, the value is not reset to zero each day and credit risk is higher because large losses are allowed to accumulate.
    • Thus, the credit risk would increase if forwards were used instead of futures.

Convenience Yield

"You should note that since we have taken a short position in the futures contract, the price we will receive for selling the equity index in 240 days will be reduced by the convenience yield associated with having a long position in the underlying asset. If there were no cash flows associated with the underlying asset, the price would be higher."

Incorrect

Convenience yield refers to non-monetary benefits from holding an asset in short supply.
A monetary benefit from holding the asset will also decrease the no-arbitrage futures price because the net cost of holding is reduced.

Cash flow duration and Empirical duration

Cash flow duration and Empirical duration
Cash flow durationEmpirical duration
FeatureSimilar to effective duration.
AdvantageIt does NOT rely on any theoretical formulas (theoretical valuation models)
WeaknessIt fails to fully account for changes in prepayment rates as cash flow yields change. (Cash flow duration assumes that one prepayment rate will apply over the life of an MBS for whatever change in interest rates is assumed.)Reliance on historical pricing data that may not exist for many mortgage-backed securities. (The values are based on historical pricing relationships.)