Tuesday, May 25, 2010

commodities

commodities
roll yieldpositive
contango/backwardationbackwardation

  • futures price > "full carry" price
  • As the contract approaches expiration, the futures contract will trade at a higher price compared to when the contract was further away from expiration. (convenience yield > risk free rate)
price level(may be) historic low
price volatilityvolatile
producers
  • Concerned that prices will fall further, to an unprofitable level.
  • Will accept less that the "full carry" price in order to hedge price risk.

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