Saturday, May 1, 2010

inflation differential, nominal exchange rate, and real exchange rate

If the real exchange rate remained constant, the change in the nominal rate must be equal to the inflation differential.

(e.g.)
U.K. expected inflation rate = iUK = 4%
Canadian expected inflation rate = iCAD =7%

Canadian stock's return (CAD) = 22%

Canadian stock's return (GBP), when the real exchange rate remained constant
= 22% + (4%-7%) = 19%

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