Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Real Exchange Rate

Nominal Exchange Rate (GBP/CAD) = Real Exchange Rate (GBP/CAD) * (PGBP/PCAD)
or
Real Exchange Rate (GBP/CAD) = Nominal Exchange Rate (GBP/CAD) * (PCAD/PGBP)


(e.g.)
  • Nominal Exchange Rate (GBP/CAD) = 0.40 (GBP/CAD)
  • The ratio of the price of the U.K. consumption basket to the Canadian consumption basket = (PGBP/PCAD)t=0 = 0.3
∴Real Exchange Rate (GBP/CAD) = 0.40 * (1/0.3) = 1.33

(e.g.)
  • Real exchange rate remained constant.
    • (GBP/CAD)Real, t=1yr = (GBP/CAD)Real, t=0
    • (GBP/CAD)Real, t=0 = (GBP/CAD)Nominal, t=0 *  (PCAD/PGBP)t=0
    • (GBP/CAD)Real, t=1yr = (GBP/CAD)Nominal, t=1yr * (PCAD/PGBP)t=1 = (GBP/CAD)Nominal, t=1yr * (PCAD/PGBP)t=0 * (1+iCAD)/(1+iGBP)
    • ∴(GBP/CAD)Nominal, t=1yr  = (GBP/CAD)Nominal, t=0 * (1+iGBP)/(1+iCAD) (exact version)
    • ∴(GBP/CAD)Nominal, t=1yr = (GBP/CAD)Nominal, t=0 * (1+iGBP - iCAD) (approximate version)
  • iGBP = 4%
  • iCAD = 7%
∴GBP return on the Canadian stock
=CAD Total return - (iCAD - iGBP) =CAD Total return + (iGBP - iCAD)
= 22% - (7% - 4%) = = 22% + (4% - 7%) = 19%

iCAD - iGBP = 7% - 4% = 3%
CAD depreciates by 3%. GBP appreciates by 3%.

(e.g.)
  • Real exchange rate changed.
    • (GBP/CAD)Real, t=0 = 1.33
    • (GBP/CAD)Real, t=1yr = 1.41
  • A Canadian stock's 1 year total return = 22%.
  • iGBP = 4%
  • iCAD = 7%
(GBP/CAD)Nominal, t=1yr
= (GBP/CAD)Real, t=1yr * (PGBP/PCAD)t=1yr
= (GBP/CAD)Real, t=1yr * (PGBP/PCAD)t=0 * (1+iGBP)/(1+iCAD)
= 1.41 * 0.30 * (1+4%)/(1+7%)
≈ 0.41114

GBP appreciated while CAD depreciated.

∴GBP total return
= CAD total return + CAD appreciation
= 22% + (0.41114-0.40)/0.40
= 22% + 2.785% = 24.785%

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