Thursday, January 27, 2011

Target Payout Ratio Adjustment Model Approach (Target Payout Ratio Approach)

ΔDividends = ΔEarnings * Target Payout Ratio * Adjustment Factor
Target Payout Ratio = ΔDividends / (ΔEarnings * Adjustment Factor)

Adjustment Factor = 1 / t
t: number of periods (e.g. year) to meet a target payout ratio

Target Payout Ratio Adjustment Model Approach (Target Payout Ratio Approach)
Dividends-increasing period8 years
Adjustment factor1/8=0.125
Earnings (t=0)$ 145 * 10^6
Earnings (t=1, expected)$ 153 * 10^6
ΔEarnings(from t=0 to 1, expected)$ 8,000,000
ΔDividends(from t=0 to 1, expected)$ 250,000

Target Payout Ratio = ΔDividends / (ΔEarnings * (1/t)) = 250,000 / (8,000,000 * 0.125) = 25%

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